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A love letter to the entertaining, unpredictable, and flawed characters who populated New Orleans before Hurricane Katrina, What Went Missing and What Got Found is a lyrical short story collection with undertones of the blues.

Set in a deep-rooted community, the book describes the inner lives of outsiders with humor and tenderness. There are religious zealots, day-dreaming musicians, failed romantics, and more a mute woman who believes that the photos of starving children in the newspaper are speaking to her, a man who mourns the loss of his true love while being accused of her murder, and an old couple who spends their last night together as flood waters rise around their bed.

The Short Story Review wrote about Shaik s previous adult book, The Mayor of New Orleans: Just Talking Jazz, The trio of novellas is set in and around New Orleans where the mixed-race Creoles speak their own dialect...Shaik writes with empathy and compassion about the lower rungs of New Orleans society. There are no villains here, nor is there the damp-palm voyeurism we have seen in other New Orleans-set stories. National Public Radio called her book a terrific, charging solo. Publishers Weekly, Booklist, Kirkus, and the San Francisco Chronicle also praised the collection.

Xavier University of Louisiana through its imprints -- the Xavier University Press, the Xavier Review and the Xavier Review Press -- began publishing in 1937 and has featured Ernest Gaines, Walker Percy, Andre Dubus, James Lee Burke, Nancy Lemann and others.

What Went Missing and What Got Found adds to the rich diversity of voices in contemporary fiction and to our understanding of Southern literature.

• Sales Rank: #1421358 in Books
• Published on: 2015-08-29
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Dimensions: 8.50" h x .51" w x 5.51" l, .63 pounds
• Binding: Paperback
• 242 pages

Review
The book is a lyrical, sympathetic look at the kind of people often overlooked in literary fiction. Quirky characters abound in a collection of stories that you will read nowhere else. Alternately laugh-out-loud funny and deeply moving, all are brought vividly to life, as is the great city of New Orleans. --Women's National Book Association newsletter The Bookwoman editor, Rhona Whitty

An engaging and riveting collection of short stories spanning pre and post-Katrina NOLA. Highly recommended reading. --Lit FanGirl, Goodreads

I can't wait to read the remaining stories in What Went Missing and What Got Found. I thoroughly enjoyed Bird Whistle. What I learned about each character from the author's creative narration left me wanting to go to the street their house is on and sit on the porch. Their realness was beautifully complemented by their magicalness. --Lucinda Gaddis, Goodreads

About the Author
Fatima Shaik is a member of PEN American Center and the author of books for adults and children. Publishers Weekly wrote "this native of New Orleans whose keen ear for dialogue and languid style help capture the special ambiance of Louisiana."
Her work has appeared in the Review of Contemporary Fiction, The Southern Review, Callaloo, The New York Times, In These Times and others. She is an Assistant Professor at Saint Peter's University and a former assistant editor of McGraw-Hill World News.

Most helpful customer reviews

1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
Get Involved
By Story Circle Book Reviews
For decades I've been a visitor to the Crescent City, New Orleans, but always as exactly that—a visitor. I'd head for the French Quarter, the elegant Garden District, maybe down to the Mississippi to watch the boats. If I encountered a neighborhood, particularly one like the Ninth Ward depicted in What Went Missing and What Got Found, the object would be to move on through as quickly as possible. Don't get involved.

But when I stepped into this same neighborhood and met Achilles, Loutie, Sister Michael Patrick, Sweet Pea and the other characters created by Fatima Shaik, I quickly became part of the community. These folks became my friends. I cared about them and continue to now that the book is closed and on my shelf.

I first met them during ordinary times, just living their own dramas, and then—disaster!

Hurricane Katrina.

These lives changed as the storm changed and horrified the city, the nation and the world. What happened? The final stories look at how Katrina immediately changed each life in drastic and different ways.

This book is author Shaik's recognition of the tenth anniversary of this overwhelming natural disaster. As our memories of Katrina's horrors fade into the decades we should not, and for readers of this book cannot, forget the personal losses that are part of its entire story. Once again, stories are the true record of history.

I'm looking forward to my next New Orleans visit. I'll feel right at home, and I'm hoping I'll run into some of my new friends.

by Trilla Pando
for Story Circle Book Reviews
reviewing books by, for, and about women

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Insider's Guide to a City Like No Other
By Diane
In the years since Hurricane Katrina, New Orleans has come to the attention of many writers and artists who have sought to investigate its problems and its charm, to portray and explain this city that is like no other in America.
That's fine I suppose.
But long before New Orleans hit the headlines, Fatima Shaik, whose family goes back generations in the city and who grew up in a shotgun house in the Seventh Ward, was soaking up the particular, unique flavor of the city. Without having to investigate she knows what people eat for breakfast (grits and toast), what to do when too much sweat makes fat people stick together (run for ice cubes), and how to describe people who have grown markedly peculiar, even for New Orleans ("teched," "He has a young mind," "A. Little. Slow.")
Most of all she has soaked up the language, one that is English, yes, but full of other mysterious stuff that creates its unique cadences as seen in the very beginning lines of "Charity Begins at Home," "The bench inside the front yard fence is a long bench. It's made of wood slats and ornery nails with everything painted over a thick green by hand. It runs across the driveway gate where the cars don't go out anymore. I've heard people call this bench wide. That always made Mama and Papa stiffen up from where they were sitting, center of the bench, hid in the shadows from the sun."
Sorry outsiders--one of which I must count myself--you will never get it right. Futhermore, you probably will never be able to understand, much less penetrate, the delicate, complicated web of relation and association that--judging from these pages--that holds everything together, come what may.
But I do advise anyone who really wants to get a glimpse of New Orleans to read and marvel at this wonderful collection.
The early stories reflect, I suspect, observations Shaik made as a child: Mama and Papa on the porch, tended by their A. Little. Slow daughter Loutie; "Teched" Thomas whose strangely literate graffiti puzzle passersby, the weary nun who, faith renewed, follows her student to dance in a thunder storm.
The later stories have Hurricane Katrina in mind, my favorite of which is the "The Hotels" with its three intertwining stories of people living--or sometimes not--through those terrible hours: A pair of old lovers tries to ride out the storm at home. Newly weds--he's local; she's not--get a crash course on what separates them. A family finds itself in the hell of the Super Dome, kept in like criminals by armed National Guard.
Of the three, my favorite is the story of the long-married couple, Sweet Pea and Davis, a love story as a beautiful tragic as anything devised by Shakespeare. These two have already been through a lot together. For one thing, Davis in his younger years took advantage of his opportunities, many in the form of white women staying at New Orleans' French Quarter hotels, all "dying for a black man." In those days he would look at his wife and see in her eye: "OK fool, I know you are lying and I just about hate you." But in age, Davis regrets what he did, wishing he had understood more about true happiness, wishing he had spent more time with those who loved him: "Funny," he muses, "how wildness ain't enough."
Davis and Sweet Pea have been through this storm and then several put on by Mother Nature. Once they followed orders to evacuate, only to eat up all their provisions still stuck on the highway and finally turn back.
In the confusion of Katrina they end up together at home in their bed, hoping for the best. As Sweet Pea says--in what I take to be a philosophical underpinning of the place -- "Living is not really for us. We just passing time. Might as well spend it one way as another. Make yourself happy."
And so they are happy for now, spooned up together. Then the water suddenly rises, is in the bed with them, so that Davis hurriedly ties their clothes together, hoping that the storm cannot do what life itself has been unable to achieve: cause them to be swept apart.

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[P110.Ebook] PDF Download Chassis Design: Principles and Analysis [R-206] (Premiere Series Books), by William F. Milliken, Douglas L. Milliken, Maurice Olley

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Chassis Design: Principles and Analysis is based on Olley's technical writings, and is the first complete presentation of his life and work. This new book provides insight into the development of chassis technology and its practical application by a master. Many examples are worked out in the text and the analytical developments are grounded by Olley's years of design experience. Well-illustrated with over 400 figures and tables, as well as numerous appendices.

• Sales Rank: #813106 in Books
• Published on: 2002-02
• Original language: English
• Dimensions: 10.00" h x 7.00" w x 1.75" l, 3.45 pounds
• Binding: Hardcover
• 676 pages

Most helpful customer reviews

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
but I really enjoy the way it teaches you vehicle dynamics
By Felipe Macedo
The book arrived at the exact time it was supposed to. I just start to read the beginning, but I really enjoy the way it teaches you vehicle dynamics.

1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
Indepth info
By Gsxrscott
Great book , everything you wanted to know but didn't know you wanted to know about car chassis design.

6 of 6 people found the following review helpful.
SpeedReaders.info
By Speed Readers
Chassis Design: Principles and Analysis
by William F and Douglas L Milliken

This important book has a very special place, for the vast majority of the material has been taken directly from the previously unpublished writings of Maurice Olley. The book begins with Olley's reminiscences, the closest Maurice Olley came to writing an autobiography.

Olley (1889-1972) was born in Yorkshire England, grew up on the great Holyhead Road running through Wales. He describes his early impressions of the time when England was dominated by the steam engine. The idea of internal combustion took hold in France and Germany more quickly than in England, where its first general acceptance was as power for motorcycles. Still, young Olley developed a lifelong passion for the motorcar and had that goal firmly in mind during his educational years. After schooling, his first real job was in France for Henry Royce as a tool designer. His life would be devoted to automobiles, first with Rolls-Royce both in England and Springfield, Massachusetts, and finally with General Motors where he rose to head Chevrolet Research and Development. After retirement in the early 1960s, Olley wrote a series of monographs, covering his life's work in the field of chassis design.

By the late '60s the material was well on the way to publication when a very tight lid was suddenly placed on the project by GM's legal staff, in view of the enormous litigation issues then raging around the "Corvair affair". We owe the father, Bill and son, Doug, team of authors of this book a great debt of gratitude that finally, after more than thirty years under wraps, they gained permission to publish Olley's monographs. Bill and Maurice had first met in 1952 and maintained a close personal and technical relationship for the balance of Olley's life.

Keeping in mind the genesis and purpose of the book, it is probably best to think of it as a textbook. Olley wrote his notes for peers, for practicing engineers; he presupposes familiarity with principles and jargon. Almost every page is filled with geometric diagrams, illustrations, and mathematical progressions. Front and rear endpapers contain the symbols used throughout the work in developing the mathematical solutions. It is a true look into the world of automotive suspension design and despite the enormous body of data presented, the book is honest in its conclusion that even with all that has become understood and quantified, the subject remains probably the most complex field in automotive engineering. Even today, just as with new aviation products, much of the design effort in automotive suspensions can only be carried out during actual testing.

This work, with a textbook appearance, could indeed be adopted in that supporting role as any new student of automotive chassis design would do well to start his or her education with an appreciation and understanding of how suspension systems have reached their present development and I cannot imagine a better source than this single book. As the authors point out, today much of the mathematical effort, and even some of the qualitative understanding, can be sidestepped by solving chassis problems (suspension linkage for example) using one of the computer programs now available. But blind reliance upon a computer program can, and has, produced gross and expensive errors. I should think that the serious student of chassis design would insist upon first working his way through the graphical approach used by Maurice Olley, developed at a time when the only computing aid at his disposal consisted of the logarithmic scales on his slide rule.

Although the book is aimed at engineers, it is still recommended reading for the rest of us who neither aspire to a future in automotive engineering (some among us have long since developed a gentle, but realistic appreciation of our personal limitations), nor wish to run through the mathematical equations just for the fun of it. It is perfectly legitimate to scan over the more difficult mathematics, accepting that they are correct as written, and instead focus one's attention on the diagrams/illustrations and the qualitative conclusions, each of which are skillfully explained.

Of particular value is the sweeping nature of Olley's writing. He first started serious suspension experiments at GM in 1930, and includes those early efforts in his writing. During the mid-1920s a serious problem with front wheel shimmy had been studied by W A Robotham at Rolls-Royce using a bump rig. From about 1911 Rolls-Royce had always tested every chassis on a dynamometer by setting the rear wheels on four-foot steel drums. Later the same idea was used for chassis fatigue testing by using an automobile engine to turn the drums, and this was the basis of the first bump rig. Maurice Olley took the idea with him to GM where he began his own test program, seeking solutions to front wheel shimmy and caster wobble. This was a time when virtually all automobiles being produced used solid front axles and leaf springs. The eventual result of Olley's efforts was development of the so-called flat-ride at GM and adoption of independent front suspension in all GM products. The story of how that happened is explained in this book and it must be said that it was largely the effort of one man.

I can still remember my grandfather raving about the ride of those first Cadillacs to benefit from the change: "It's like floating down the road, no matter whether you're sitting in front or back." Now at last I know how they achieved it and have also learned who was the driving force. Have you ever wondered why it is so superior to a fixed front axle? It is not just a matter of reducing the unsprung mass, as many believe. You will find so much information on the book's 619 core pages, augmented with appendices, and almost none of it is redundant. Helpful too is, through out, the authors have included their commentary, in italics, helping the reader understand the concepts and adjusting for changes in modern SAE sign convention. Olley assumes an audience of engineers and does not explain some basic terms making the authors' notes particularly helpful, plus they include additional information at the end of each section as well as in appendices.

One cannot come away from this book without having gained a greater appreciation of the subject, plus great respect for Maurice Olley, one of the original pioneers in chassis design, and for the authors as well, who carry on in that tradition today at their Milliken Research Associates. ([...])

Copyright 2009 (speedreaders.info) Edited and adapted with permission from review by James Pate, originally published in the July/August 2002 issue of The Flying Lady, the periodical of the Rolls-Royce Owners Club (RROC/USA)
(Reviewer Pate, an engineer with a decades-long career as a commercial pilot, is now working on classic cars in his retirement.)

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Security Operations Center is the complete guide to building, operating, and managing Security Operations Centers in any environment. Drawing on experience with hundreds of customers ranging from Fortune 500 enterprises to large military organizations, three leading experts thoroughly review each SOC model, including virtual SOCs. You’ll learn how to select the right strategic option for your organization, and then plan and execute the strategy you’ve chosen.

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• Sales Rank: #182149 in Books
• Published on: 2015-11-08
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Dimensions: 8.90" h x 1.10" w x 7.30" l, 1.64 pounds
• Binding: Paperback
• 448 pages

About the Author

Joseph Muniz is a consultant at Cisco Systems and security researcher. Joseph started his career in software development and later managed networks as a contracted technical resource. Joseph moved into consulting and found a passion for security while meeting with a variety of customers. He has been involved with the design and implementation of multiple projects, ranging from Fortune 500 corporations to large federal networks. Joseph is the author of and contributor to several books and is a speaker for popular security conferences. Check out his blog, http://www.thesecurityblogger.com, which showcases the latest security events, research, and technologies.

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Gary McIntyre is a seasoned information security professional focusing on the development and operation of large-scale information security programs. As an architect, manager, and consultant, he has worked with a wide range of public and private sector organizations around the world to design, build, and maintain small to large security operations teams. He currently holds a Masters degree from the University of Toronto and has also been a long-time (ISC)2 instructor.

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Dr. Nadhem AlFardan has more than 15 years of experience in the area of information security and holds a Ph.D. in Information Security from Royal Holloway, University of London. Nadhem is a senior security solution architect working for Cisco Systems. Before joining Cisco, he worked for Schlumbeger and HSBC. Nadhem is CISSP certified and is an ISO 27001 lead auditor. He is also CCIE Security certified. In his Ph.D. research, Nadhem published a number of papers in prestige conferences, such as IEEE S&P and USENIX Security, mainly around cryptoanalysis topics. His work involved him working with organizations such as Google, Microsoft, Cisco, Mozilla, OpenSSL, and many others, mainly to help them assess and fix major findings in the Transport Layer Security/Secure Sockets Layer (TLS/SSL) protocol. His work is referenced in a number of IETF standards.

Most helpful customer reviews

2 of 4 people found the following review helpful.
This book does an excellent job in many areas
By Aamir Lakhani
SOCs or security operation centers are difficult to setup, maintain and operate. It is a massive task, and the sum of the entire task is very difficult to articulate. This book does an excellent job in many areas.

The book should appeal to professionals and newcomers alike. I would recommend it as required reading for anyone involved in a SOC. Technologies may get updated, techniques may change, but the fundamental principals will stay the same, and this book covers them.

Newcomers to the SOC business will learn the challenges of building a SOC, the fundamental steps needed to operate one.

Seasoned professionals will pick up new techniques such as threat intelligence and ideas around information sharing which are still extremely new. The book has lots of great diagrams that show the flow of particular sections. Even as technologies get change, or if other products are used instead of the recommended ones, the reader will understand what and why the technology is implemented.

The authors did a great job on a very difficult subject.

2 of 4 people found the following review helpful.
Both complete and practical
By Nick A Kelly
"The complete practical guide to planning, building and operating an effective Security Operations Center" sums it up nicely. The key to this read is that it is both complete and practical. Muniz and McIntyre cover all the relevant points, including tactical day to day operations, process and procedure, disaster recovery and business continuity planning, and organization. The guide is peppered with stories that are experienced by CIO's and CISO's every day as we continue to adapt defenses against the changing threat landscape. This handbook is a great resource for professionals in charge of technical organizations, or those tasked with handling risk, governance and compliance. Very valuable for the right price!

5 of 9 people found the following review helpful.
An indispensable guide for those designing, managing or deploying a SOC
By Ben Rothke
Large enterprises have numerous information security challenges. Aside from the external threats; there’s the onslaught of security data from disparate systems, platforms and applications. Getting a handle on the security output from numerous point solutions, generating millions of messages and alerts daily is not a trivial endeavor. As attacks becoming more frequent and sophisticated and with regulatory compliance issues placing an increasing burden, there needs to be a better way to manage all of this.

Getting the raw hardware, software and people to create a SOC is not that difficult. The challenge, and it’s a big challenge, is integrating those 3 components to ensure that a formal SOC can operate. In Security Operations Center: Building, Operating, and Maintaining your SOC, authors Joseph Muniz, Gary McIntyre and Nadhem AlFardan have written an indispensable reference on the topic. The authors have significant SOC experience, and provide the reader with a detailed plan on all the steps involved in creating a SOC.

As Mike Rothman noted about managed services providers, and something that is relevant to a SOC, you should have no illusions about the amount of effort required to get a SOC up and running, or what it takes to keep one current and useful. Many organizations have neither the time nor the resources to implement a SOC, but do, and are then trapped on the hamster wheel of pain, reacting without sufficient visibility, but without time to invest in gaining that much-needed visibility into threats that the SOC had the potential to provide them with, had they done it right. Those considering deploying a SOC and not wanting to be in the hamster wheel of pain will need this book.

The authors have done a great job in covering every phase and the many details required to build out a SOC. After going through the book, some readers will likely reconsider deploying an internal SOC given the difficulties and challenges involved. This is especially true since SOC design and deployment is something not many people have experience with.

The book is written for an organization that is serious about building an enterprise SOC. The authors spend much of the book focusing on the myriad requirements for creation of a SOC. They constantly reiterate about details that need to be determined before moving forward.

Chapter 4 on SOC strategy is important as the way in which a firm determines their strategy will affect every aspect of the outcome. The authors wisely note that an inadequate or inaccurate SOC strategy, and the ensuing capabilities assessment exercises would produce a SOC strategy that does not properly address the actual requirements of the organization.

Ultimately, failing to adequately plan and design is a guarantee for SOC failure. That in turn will affect and impact deployment timelines, budgets and cause frustration, dissatisfaction and friction between the different teams involved in the SOC program.

The author’s expertise is evident in every chapter, and their real-world expertise quite obvious in chapter 5 on facilities, which is an area often neglected in SOC design. The significant issue is that if the facility in which the SOC team operates out of does meet certain baseline requirements, the SOC effectiveness will be significantly and often detrimentally impacted. The chapter details many overlooked topics such as: acoustics, lighting, ergonomics, and more.

Staffing a SOC is another challenge, and the book dedicates chapter 8 to that. The SOC is only as good as the people inside it, and the SOC staff requires a blend of skills. If the organization wants their SOC to operate 24x7, it will obviously require a lot more manpower of these hard to find SOC analysts.

Another helpful aspect is found in chapter 10 which has a number of checklists you can use to verify that all the required pieces are in place prior to a go live data, or be able to identify area that many not be completed as expected.

Building a SOC is an arduous process which takes a huge amount of planning and work. This work must be executed by people from different teams and departments, all working together. Based on these challenges, far too many SOC deployments fail. But for anyone who is serious about building out a SOC, this book should be a part of that effort.

The reason far too many, perhaps most SOC deployments fail is that firms makes the mistake of obsessing on the hardware and software, without adequately considering the security operations functions. The authors make it eminently clear that such an approach won’t work, and provide you with the expert guidance to obviate that.

For anyone considering building a SOC, or wants to understand all of the details involved in building one, Security Operations Center: Building, Operating, and Maintaining your SOC, is an absolute must read.

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Economics: New Ways of Thinking Second Edition by Roger A. Arnold

• Sales Rank: #1842122 in Books
• Published on: 2015
• Binding: Hardcover
• 588 pages

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0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Five Stars
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A risk measurement and management framework that takes model risk seriously

Most financial risk models assume the future will look like the past, but effective risk management depends on identifying fundamental changes in the marketplace as they occur. Bayesian Risk Management details a more flexible approach to risk management, and provides tools to measure financial risk in a dynamic market environment. This book opens discussion about uncertainty in model parameters, model specifications, and model-driven forecasts in a way that standard statistical risk measurement does not. And unlike current machine learning-based methods, the framework presented here allows you to measure risk in a fully-Bayesian setting without losing the structure afforded by parametric risk and asset-pricing models.

• Recognize the assumptions embodied in classical statistics
• Quantify model risk along multiple dimensions without backtesting
• Model time series without assuming stationarity
• Estimate state-space time series models online with simulation methods
• Uncover uncertainty in workhorse risk and asset-pricing models
• Embed Bayesian thinking about risk within a complex organization

Ignoring uncertainty in risk modeling creates an illusion of mastery and fosters erroneous decision-making. Firms who ignore the many dimensions of model risk measure too little risk, and end up taking on too much. Bayesian Risk Management provides a roadmap to better risk management through more circumspect measurement, with comprehensive treatment of model uncertainty.

• Sales Rank: #2131927 in Books
• Published on: 2015-09-15
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Dimensions: 9.30" h x .92" w x 6.30" l, .0 pounds
• Binding: Hardcover
• 240 pages

From the Inside Flap

Most financial risk models assume that the future will look like the past. They don't have to. Bayesian Risk Management sketches a more flexible risk-modeling approach that more fully recognizes the irreducibility of our uncertainty about the future.

The risk that a firm's models may fail to capture shifts in market pricing, risk sensitivities, or the mix of the firm's risk exposures is a central operational risk for any financial services business. Yet many, if not most, financial services firms lack insight into the probabilistic structure of risk models and the corresponding risk of model failures. The thesis of Bayesian Risk Management is that most firms lack insight into model risk because of the way they practice statistical modeling. Because generally accepted statistical practice provides thin means for assessing model risk, alternative methods are needed to take model risk seriously. Bayesian probability methods are used throughout the book to:

• Understand the assumptions underlying classical time-series methods and the manner in which they restrict ongoing learning about market conditions
• Account for the possibility that different risk models may be useful under alternative market conditions, and that model parameters are known imperfectly
• Allow risk models to adjust continuously to changing market conditions, incorporating varying degrees of memory and coherently revising model estimates from day to day in light of new information
• Develop and compare alternative online models for single- and multiple-asset volatility
• Simulate the evolution of state variables and model parameters in dynamic asset pricing models to distinguish market and model risk

Ignoring the many dimensions of model risk means measuring too little risk and assuming too much of it. Bayesian Risk Management provides a coherent framework for discerning one's informational advantages and limitations in rapidly-evolving financial markets.

From the Back Cover

A Risk Measurement and Management Framework that Takes Model Risk Seriously

Why do risk models break down? The answer may lie in the way that statistical methods are conventionally used to draw inferences about market conditions and inform risk-taking behavior. Bayesian Risk Management enables a discussion on the way standard statistical methods overlook uncertainty in model specifications, model parameters, and model-driven forecasts. In a simple and direct way, Bayesian methods are used throughout the book to:

• Recognize the assumptions embodied in classical statistics
• Quantify model risk along multiple dimensions
• Model time series without assuming continuity between past and future
• Adjust time-series estimates to maintain forecast accuracy
• Uncover uncertainty in workhorse risk and asset-pricing models
• Achieve decentralized control of risk-taking in complex organizations

For firms in financial services and other industries operating in a dynamic environment of incomplete information, Bayesian Risk Management provides a thought-provoking challenge to the prevailing wisdom about the uses and limitations of statistical risk modeling.

About the Author

MATT SEKERKE is an economic consultant based in New York whose work focuses on the financial services industry and the application of advanced quantitative modeling techniques o financial data. He holds a BA in economics and mathematics from The Johns Hopkins University, an MA in history from The Johns Hopkins University, and an MBA in econometrics and statistics, analytic finance, and entrepreneurship from The University of Chicago Booth School of Business. He is also a CFA charterholder, a certified Financial Risk Manager, and a certified Energy Risk Professional.

Most helpful customer reviews

7 of 7 people found the following review helpful.
A pretty good text on Bayesian adaptive econometric time series analysis, little relevance to finance or risk management
By Aaron C. Brown
This book is a pretty good textbook introduction to adaptive Bayesian time series analysis in econometrics. What's strange it that it claims to be a book on financial risk management. If that's your interest, you will be better served by Riccardo Rebonato's A Bayesian Approach to the Analysis of Financial Stress, The Perfect Hedger and the Fox, A Bayesian-Net Approach to Coherent Asset Allocation or Plight of the Fortune Tellers. Those books do not cover the specific mathematics of this one, but they approach the similar issues in financial risk management terms. After reading one or all of them, you might want to buy this one as a text on some of the mathematics involved.

The first line in the book is, "Most financial risk models assume that the future will look like the past." Variants of that statement are repeated frequently in the book, without any citation or examples. Of course it's false in the sense the author means it. All modern financial risk models embody some forms of learning and adaptation, and consider the possibility of unprecedented events.

In fact adaptive Bayesian techniques are very popular in finance. If the author knows this, why he doesn't discuss how they are used and what their strengths and weaknesses are compared to other modern models? If he doesn't know this, why does he thinks adaptive Bayesian models would work, and why does he think sophisticated financial institutions refuse to adopt them? The book seems to assume everyone is using methods from a 40-year-old Introductory Statistics text.

The book does not discuss how any of this analysis would be useful for risk management until the last, and shortest, chapter of the book. Almost all of that chapter is a recapitulation of the early material, only at the end do we get two hints. The first is that when market data deviate from model predictions, "we should either search for better information or trim risk exposures." Of course, this is what people do without risk management. What risk manager would say, "My plan is to wait for unexpected things to happen, then figure them out"? The point of risk management is to have contingency plans for when you can't figure things out.

The common term for the second option is "panic". Another point of risk management is to run things at risk levels so you don't have to slash positions at any sign of change (and half the time, those changes mean you make unexpected amounts of money). It's not always practical to cut risk, or obvious how to do it. A lot of problems in 2008 were caused by firms trying to cut risk exposures and ending up making things worse. Moreover, if you are going to adopt this strategy, good risk management practice is to have explicit preset rules for when and how much you will reduce exposures, and this is really important, when you will put the exposures back on.

The author's only other risk management suggestion is for senior management to translate strategic instructions in terms of prior distributions. The one example given is instead of saying, try "to be at the top of the league tables for syndicated loans in leveraged buyouts," management should broadcast a prior distribution of leveraged loan performance conditional on latent credit states, and risk takers throughout the firm should use that prior distribution in making decisions.

But of course, senior management is not stating an opinion about prior distributions of leveraged loan performance. The leveraged loan desk knows far more about that than senior management. Moreover, management is not telling risk takers to buy and hold leveraged loans, it's telling them to beat out the competition in syndicating them. That has nothing to do with whether or not they are good investments. It's likely a judgement based on beliefs that it is a profitable and fast growing business, that plays to the bank's core competencies, and that will fit in well with other businesses, and serve the bank's customers. Another likely consideration is that the bank has faith in the leverage loan teams, and believes they have the talent and capacity to try for number one. Finally, it is an implicit promise that people will be rewarded for accomplishing the goal, and an implicit threat that the future may be dim for the business heads if they cannot at least come close to the goal.

If we forget about risk management and just treat this as a book on how to make short-term estimates of probability distributions in time series, it's still an econometrics text, not a finance book. It's true that the examples are all financial prices, but they are economist prices, not real prices. When making real financial decisions, you consider not just end-of-day prices from the past, you look at intraday prices and a number of indicators of the prices at which you can transact: recent transactions, broker quotes, trader estimates, model prices based on more liquid instruments. It's not that there is a true price and you're uncertain about it, there are a range of prices depending on whether you're buying or selling, and how much; and you're uncertain about all of them. Moreover decisions do not depend only on forecasted short-term price movements, but on liquidity, financing risk, how your trading will affect prices and other factors.

An even bigger problem is all the examples concern forecasting a fixed portfolio. If you never trade, there's not much point in forecasting. If the portfolio does change, you have a problem the author ignores. Suppose for example you run a long-short equity momentum portfolio, that is you buy stocks that have gone up recently and short stocks that have gone down, carefully balanced to avoid exposure to the main equity risk factors. If you predict based on the returns on the portfolio, you're making estimates based on the performance of a portfolio you no longer hold. If you instead use the hypothetical past returns of your current positions, your portfolio will always look great; it has to have done well in the past due to the way you constructed it. Adaptive Bayesian methods are still useful, but they have to be set up differently than the author's examples.

But the biggest problem is the author treats all financial price movements as random variables, with distributions that can be estimated. But financial prices are sometimes undefined, during liquidity crises, for example, or when markets are closed. Some of the biggest risks occur at these times. Moreover, while the random walk model is powerful, there are other models that must be considered as well. For example, the price of gasoline is related to the price of crude oil, because refiners will adjust behavior if the spread gets too high or too low. But this is a very complex process with a lot of lags. You can't just have a prior distribution that the price of gasoline will tend to revert to the price of crude oil plus the cost of refining, you need a more sophisticated model. In principle you could marry a deterministic model to an adaptive Bayesian one, but as far as I know no one has, there are some severe problems.

Another important way to think about financial prices is in game theory terms. In a short squeeze, for example, people buy hoping to inflict enough losses on short sellers to force them to cover, and push the price up more. Game theory treats uncertainty about the future as choices of rational actors, whose beliefs and preferences are at least partly understood. Adaptive Bayesian methods, if not modified properly, tend to lead to strategies that will be eaten alive by other market participants.

The book is well-written and clear, and treats adaptive Bayesian econometric time series models in comprehensive fashion. The math is given, but you don't need to track through the equations to understand the ideas, and there are widely available computer packages for actual implementation. But if you want to apply these in finance, and particularly in financial risk management, this book is only an introduction to the process.

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Adopting a textual, chronological approach, Studying German Cinema is for students of German and film studies and the general reader with an interest in German cinema. Each of the fourteen chapters focuses on one key film, from the groundbreaking horror Nosferatu (1922) to the Oscar-winning The Lives of Others (2007), and explores industrial practices both in West and East Germany; aesthetic approaches; auteurist traditions (including films by Fassbinder, Wenders, and Herzog); and ideology. Each film is embedded in its cultural and political context, and together they provide an overview of German history from the end of World War I to the present.

• Sales Rank: #355893 in Books
• Brand: Brand: Auteur
• Published on: 2010-01-27
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Dimensions: .70" h x 6.00" w x 9.00" l, 1.05 pounds
• Binding: Paperback
• 256 pages

Features

• Used Book in Good Condition

Review

for the reader who wants an overview of German cinema, this book certainly does the trick and her choice of films is great. All the films are easily available and very accessible.

(Media Education Journal)

About the Author

Maggie Hoffgen is an educator in German language and culture with an MA in film studies. She divides her time between supervising Goethe-Institut courses at Manchester University's Language Centre and working as a freelance film lecturer.

Most helpful customer reviews

2 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
Thorough cultural analysis, long, sometimes hard to follow
By Ashley Prouty
Very thorough descriptions of cultural times and often also detailed accounts of the actors/actresses and/or the director/writer or others involved. Sometimes the length of the coverage is a bit much, and can be a bit repetitive but again, VERY thorough in explaining how the film was received and why, and the political-social involvements with said reactions.

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